A few weeks ago, the Democratic path to controlling Congress looked difficult but reasonably clear.
Win back the House. Hold Georgia and Michigan in the Senate. Defeat Republicans in North Carolina, Ohio and Maine. Then find one more seat somewhere—Alaska, Texas or an unexpected state caught in a Democratic wave.
That path still exists. It has just become considerably narrower.
The collapse of the Democratic campaign in Maine removed what was supposed to be one of the central building blocks of a Senate majority. Lindsey Graham’s sudden death has created an unexpected opening in South Carolina, but probably not one large enough to replace it.
Meanwhile, Trump and Republican officials have continued changing the conditions under which the election will be held—tightening registration requirements, demanding access to voter information, altering identification rules and seeking more federal influence over an election system traditionally run by the states.
The result is an election with two very different stories.
Democrats have a strong chance of winning the House.
Winning the Senate will require something close to a clean sweep.
The House case begins with the national mood. Democrats are leading the generic congressional ballot by about six points, depending on the polling average, while Trump remains unpopular. That combination normally produces losses for the president’s party.
The House is not elected nationally, of course. Democrats can win more votes across the country and still lose because their voters are heavily concentrated in cities, while Republican legislatures have drawn districts to convert their votes into seats more efficiently.
That means Democrats probably need more than a narrow popular-vote victory.