Maine Democrats could choose someone more experienced, more broadly acceptable and less burdened by scandal. But that candidate will have to introduce himself or herself to the state, build an organization and challenge a five-term incumbent almost at once.
Susan Collins has survived before because she has convinced enough Maine voters that she is not quite the same as the Republican Party she repeatedly helps keep in power. She will now run as the familiar figure in a race Democrats have turned into an emergency repair job.
Maine remains winnable. It is no longer dependable.
The Graham Opening
Lindsey Graham’s death changes the map in the opposite direction.
Graham died at 71, just a few weeks after winning the Republican nomination for a fifth term, from what has been described as “an aortic dissection caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease”. He died following a whirlwind trip to Ukraine and the night before his scheduled appearance on Meet the Press. South Carolina’s Republican governor will appoint a temporary replacement, and the party must select a new candidate for November.
Graham was a complicated political figure. He could work across party lines, particularly on foreign affairs, and he had a genuine friendship with John McCain. He also transformed himself from one of Trump’s sharpest Republican critics into one of his most dependable defenders.
During the 2016 campaign, Graham called Trump a “kook” and warned that the party would be “destroyed” if it nominated him. He eventually became one of the people most responsible for making Trumpism respectable inside the Senate.
His death may produce a Republican fight over who inherits the seat and who claims his relationship with Trump. But South Carolina remains a strongly Republican state. Democrats should contest it, particularly if Republicans choose a divisive nominee. They should not build a Senate strategy around winning it.
The arithmetic still looks like this:
* Democrats must hold Georgia and Michigan. * They probably need North Carolina and Ohio. * Then they must win two among Maine, Alaska, Texas and a South Carolina long shot.
That is possible. It is also why I would currently put the chance of a Democratic Senate at only about 20 to 30 percent.
The Rules Are Changing, Too
There is another uncertainty that cannot be reduced to individual races.
Republican officials across 23 states have enacted or adopted elements of Trump’s proposed voting restrictions, including documentary proof-of-citizenship requirements, tighter identification rules and expanded checks of voter rolls. Reuters found that 17 states were using or planning to use a federal immigration database to check voter eligibility, even though voting-rights groups warn that faulty or outdated records can misidentify naturalized citizens.
The administration has also sought confidential voter information from state and local officials.